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Chris L

Buy Intel (INTC), Hold AMD

Intel's Alder Lake refresh is a strong boost for the stock that sits at the $50 inflection point.

As a user wrote,

1. Alder Lake is tuned for performance over power draw, because power draw does not matter for the desktop use case. Once you see the mobile parts you will realize that it can be tuned for power draw as well. Leaks show the mobile parts will be around ~5-50 watts. Same tuning options apply for Sapphire Rapids.

2. AMD: Extra cache is a kludge with opportunity costs. If it would have been the most efficient design, it would have been designed that way initially. It will basically do some things for games that can fit important code paths into the larger cache, it will do nothing where that does not apply. The chip gets more expensive and runs hotter due to the stacking. If AMD is stupid the Zen 3d will not run on 4xx chipsets (there is the 3xx precedent, but I don't expect them to be that stupid now).

3. Sales right now do not particularly matter, especially not the BIY numbers. The CPU is bottlenecked by cheap mainboards, but that is a temporary issue. Once Intel makes bundle deals for Alder Lake 12600k and Intel Arc GPUs for builders, AMD will be in a tough spot. At that point the mainboard costs will have come down and Intel is the more modern platform with DDR5 and PCIe 5.

4. Alder Lake 12600k will dominate the gaming use case, probably together with a reasonably priced ARC GPU arriving in Q1/Q2 2022. Unlike AMD, Intel can not be barred from the market by Nvidia backroom deals, because its CPU relations supersede any shady shit Nvidia can pull.

5. Data center AMD will have more cores. It will be a tradeoff between more cores vs. cores with better features/more performance per core.

$INTC, Intel Corporation / H1

6. Long term AMDs model is redundant, because the likes of google/AWS/Microsoft will not want to buy premade designs from either AMD or Intel, but rather have CPU designs tailored to their use case. That is what they are trying with ARM right now, but there is just too much x86 software bound in the data center. There is no performance difference between ARM and x86, because contrary to what many people believe, x86 is just a decoder frontend since the Pentium Pro, internally they are both RISC. So once they design their own CPUs they have to go to AMD or Intel due to the license. Intel represents a one stop solution with fabs, AMD does not. Intel has a better design components as well to pick from (NICs, etc.). So once the big datacenter providers go that way, AMD is likely [in trouble].

$AMD, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. / H1

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