The $1 billion Chesapeake Energy (CHK) CDS (credit default swap) purchase in late September will end up worthless. Bet along with Chesapeake’s CEO. He bought millions of dollars worth of the stock.Chesapeake’s CEO invested $6.6 million more in the company, which signals the company will not face bankruptcy or defaults anytime soon. The CDS may simply make easy money for the bank selling the issue. Similarly, a bond-holder may simply want insurance on the debt holding. Still, as natural gas prices and oil prices improve, CHK’s stock will more likely re-visit the $8 level than to correct back to $4 - $5. $CHK, Chesapeake Energy Corporation / 60 Winter is coming. A colder than average weather will help natural gas prices, which in turn supports a higher share price for CHK.UBS downgradeOn October 13, UBS downgraded Chesapeake Energy, citing the company's high debt load. The firm admitted CHK has a better debt profile. Upcoming debt is down by 67% to around $660M, but Debt/Equity is still 4x through 2018.Bottom lineNatural gas prices are above $3.30. Fundamentals in the sector are improving. This gives CHK the room to grow cash flow, service debt, sell assets, and recover in the next year.