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Forecast came true

U.S-China Will Not Announce a Trade Deal by March 1
10 january

Market traders keep getting tricked by the same news. Promise and words over an actual deal moved markets, raised volatility but is noise.

U.S.-China trade deal is unlikely.

The U.S. government is shut-down. 19 days now. If the POTUS backs down, he will be seen by China as weak. And POTUS cannot allow for that.

$SPY, SPDR S&P 500 / H1

Ego and such.

Alibaba $BABA is an indicator of China stock performance:

$BABA, Alibaba Group Holding Limited / H1

With the economy weakening and facing short-term damage due to the shutdown alone, it will be pressured to deal with China.

Such delicate matters take time. March 1 is not enough time.

No deal by Mar. 1. 

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U.S-China Will Not Announce a Trade Deal by March 1

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Forecast came true

Deadline extended.

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