iRobot $IRBT beat and posted a good forecast. Stock down. $IRBT, iRobot Corporation / H1 Boeing $BA missed badly. Await the dip. The first one happened but the stock needs to be tested at $327. $BA, Boeing Company (The) / H1 Sell $BIIB. Easy money's been made: $BIIB, Biogen Inc. / H1 Pray for Microsoft $MSFT. $MSFT, Microsoft Corporation / H1 What scenario happens next? Scenario 1: Trump and China reach trade deal and the markets will sky rocket and op (professor Einstein aka dude that probably has 5 dollars in his savings account) will cry and cry and cry while everyone else laughs and makes money Scenario 2: President mango tweets that emperor Winnie the Pooh is taking advantage the US. Market dies. 2008 is here? Look at WeWork's executive getting paid $1.7B just to leave. Power user says: I turned bearish in the summer of 07 when I saw . People love to shit on Cramer, but that episode was really seared in my mind as an admission that things were starting to fall apart. (Cramer probably now knows better than to have such honesty with the public about financial conditions. He's probably been told not to spook the markets). In the summer 07, markets were still booming and recession was nowhere in sight. However, the housing market started to slow and then decline in price (similar to recent declines in Seattle and San Francisco and some other markets). In summer 07, there was chatter about whether we'd get more Fed rate increases, very similar to the kind of chatter we heard around December 2018. A few months later in September 2007, the Fed reversed course and cut rates, similar to the Fed's reversal and cut in July 2019. But they continued to reassure is that the economy was very strong and that recession was unlikely. In 2009, it was declared that the recession actually began in Q4 2007 - right around the time of the first Fed rate cut, right around the time the market hit all-time highs. Bernanke testified to Congress that there was no hint of recession - right as the recession was starting. Then in late 2007 and early 2008, there started to be news stories about mortgage losses at Countrywide Financial and Bear Stearns. That some hedge funds were blowing up, that banks were suddenly writing down $2B at a time. What did it mean? What were these losses? Were things contained? What does it mean when a hedge fund blows up? It was confusing as fuck. No one knew what it meant. That's where we are now. What does this repo stuff mean? Why aren't banks lending to each other? Is it normal? It's normal. No, it's not normal. Is it the Chinese? Is it a foreign bank going under??? The confusion and Fed actions we had in late 07/early 08 are similar to the confusion and Fed actions we see today. However, the market didn't really collapse until 6 months later, once Lehman went under. We even got a late spring rally after Bear Stearns collapsed, and it looked like we were on our way back to all-time highs! History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. It's now just a question of when the shoe will drop... $SPY, SPDR S&P 500 / H1 Counter-argument (source:brutal pancake): OK here's my big stupid understanding of why iTs DifFeReNt ThIS tImE: - They're specifically buying short term treasuries to support the overnight repo market and increase reserves. During QE they were buying shit tons of long dated treasuries and blowing up their balance sheet which has a different intent and expected impact on the rate curve -Why are reserves low? The fed hasn't been providing liquidity in the overnight repo market for a while now, which has the natural impact of lowering reserves over time due to corporate tax payments and other transfers of money from the private sector to the government. Note this recent thing started at a quarter end where you had a lot of money flowing out of the banking system into the government due to said corporate tax payments. -This leaves banks tight on cash but still with plenty of what they call 'HQLA' (high quality liquid assets). These are treasuries and other high rated government or sovereign debt - just about as good as cash, but not cash. So with every bank in the same position - asset rich, cash poor - the fed steps in as an overnight buyer - here, we'll take your treasuries, credit your fed account with cash - boom, liquidity. You do whatever banks do with the cash - settle some trades, top up your money market funds, whatever - next day you take your securities back and they debit your account back to where it was. This is different than QE where they'd buy your shit nonstop, leave you with the cash, hold what they bought to maturity, and continue to buy more along the way. -Lastly and most straightforwardly, I work at a big bank and asked some of the guys in treasury what they thought about this. Their response? 'Eh - the fed is just doing what they should've done a month or two ago'. Basically, the people who are dealing with this stuff in their day to day job and have been in the industry through the crisis (hell, longer than most of us have been alive) are not in the least bit alarmed by this. tl;dr: it's nowhere near the same thing! The repo market stuff is standard practice, there's no change to anything, you don't understand finance.