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Chris L

Events Today for Mon., Oct. 26, 2020

Events in the US Today (EDT):

  • DAY - Wear a mask & socially distance  
  • 8:30am - Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity (Sep) [1/3 Volatility]
  • 10:00am - New Home Sales (Sep) [1/3 Volatility]
  • 11:30am - 3&6 Month Bill Auction [1/3 Volatility]
  • 1:00pm - 5 Year Note Auction [1/3 Volatility]
  • 7:00pm - The Senate is set to vote to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court
  • An effective, safe vaccine will not be ready for mass distribution in the United States until late 2021, although experts will know by early December about results from COVID-19 vaccine research, said Anthony Fauci.
  • The first reading of U.S. 3Q GDP Thursday is anticipated to be the strongest on record following a record dive in the prior quarter as many businesses were shuttered by the pandemic.

Events in the World Today (EDT):

  • DAY - Hong Kong & New Zealand Holidays
  • 5:00am - Germany Ifo Business Climate Index [3/3 Volatility]
    • Germany Business Expectations [2/3 Volatility]
    • Germany Current Assessment [2/3 Volatility]
  • 7:25am - Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout [2/3 Volatility]
  • 10:30am - Switzerland SNB Chair Jordan Speaks [2/3 Volatility]
  • 5:45pm - New Zealand Trade Balance (MoM&YoY-Sep) [2/3 Volatility]
  • SAP stock plunged on Monday as Germany’s most valuable company slashed its profit forecasts after programming in a longer and deeper hit from the Covid-19 pandemic. By 4:50 AM ET (0950 GMT), the software giant’s stock was down 18%, having dropped over 20% at the opening, its biggest intraday loss in over 20 years according to Bloomberg.

Earnings Before Open:

  • Hasbro, SAP, HCA, OTIS

Earnings After Close:

  • Twilio, Chegg, NXP, F5 Networks, GNC

Short SAP on T2BF next.


Let's start with a little history, shall we?

On this day in 1825, he Erie Canal opens, connecting the Great Lakes with the Atlantic Ocean via the Hudson and Mohawk Rivers. Governor DeWitt Clinton of New York, the driving force behind the project, led the opening ceremonies and rode the canal boat Seneca Chief from Buffalo to New York City. Work began on the waterway in August 1823. Teams of oxen plowed the ground, but for the most part the work was done by Irish diggers who had to rely on primitive tools. They were paid $10 a month, and barrels of whisky were placed along the canal route as encouragement. West of Troy, 83 canal locks were built to accommodate the 500-foot rise in elevation. After more than two years of digging, the 425-mile Erie Canal was opened on October 26, 1825, by Governor Clinton. The effect of the canal was immediate and dramatic. Settlers poured into western New York, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin. Goods were transported at one-tenth the previous fee in less than half the time. Barges of farm produce and raw materials traveled east, as manufactured goods and supplies flowed west. In nine years, tolls had paid back the cost of construction. Later enlarged and deepened, the canal survived competition from the railroads in the latter part of the 19th century. Today, the Erie Canal is used mostly by pleasure boaters, but it is still capable of accommodating heavy barges. In my neck of the woods, the Genesee Valley Canal connected the region to the Erie Canal. Several man-made lakes were constructed to provide water for the canal.

On October 26, 1775, King George III speaks before both houses of the British Parliament to discuss growing concern about the rebellion in America, which he viewed as a traitorous action against himself and Great Britain. He began his speech by reading a “Proclamation of Rebellion” and urged Parliament to move quickly to end the revolt and bring order to the colonies. The king spoke of his belief that “many of these unhappy people may still retain their loyalty, and may be too wise not to see the fatal consequence of this usurpation, and wish to resist it, yet the torrent of violence has been strong enough to compel their acquiescence, till a sufficient force shall appear to support them.” With these words, the king gave Parliament his consent to dispatch troops to use against his own subjects, a notion that his colonists believed impossible. Just as the Continental Congress expressed its desire to remain loyal to the British crown in the Olive Branch Petition, delivered to the monarch on September 1, so George III insisted he had “acted with the same temper; anxious to prevent, if it had been possible, the effusion of the blood of my subjects; and the calamities which are inseparable from a state of war; still hoping that my people in America would have discerned the traitorous views of their leaders, and have been convinced, that to be a subject of Great Britain, with all its consequences, is to be the freest member of any civil society in the known world.” King George went on to scoff at what he called the colonists’ “strongest protestations of loyalty to me,” believing them disingenuous, “whilst they were preparing for a general revolt.” Unfortunately for George III, Thomas Paine’s anti-monarchical argument in the pamphlet, Common Sense, published in January 1776, proved persuasive to many American colonists. The two sides had reached a final political impasse and the bloody War for Independence soon followed.

On October 26, 1881, the Earp brothers face off against the Clanton-McLaury gang in a legendary shootout at the O.K. Corral in Tombstone, Arizona. On the morning of October 25, Ike Clanton and Tom McLaury came into Tombstone for supplies. Over the next 24 hours, the two men had several violent run-ins with the Earps and their friend Doc Holliday. Around 1:30 p.m. on October 26, Ike’s brother Billy rode into town to join them, along with Frank McLaury and Billy Claiborne. The first person they met in the local saloon was Holliday, who was delighted to inform them that their brothers had both been pistol-whipped by the Earps. Frank and Billy immediately left the saloon, vowing revenge. Around 3 p.m., the Earps and Holliday spotted the five members of the Clanton-McLaury gang in a vacant lot behind the OK Corral, at the end of Fremont Street. The famous gunfight that ensued lasted all of 30 seconds, and around 30 shots were fired. Though it’s still debated who fired the first shot, most reports say that the shootout began when Virgil Earp pulled out his revolver and shot Billy Clanton point-blank in the chest, while Doc Holliday fired a shotgun blast at Tom McLaury’s chest. Though Wyatt Earp wounded Frank McLaury with a shot in the stomach, Frank managed to get off a few shots before collapsing, as did Billy Clanton. When the dust cleared, Billy Clanton and the McLaury brothers were dead, and Virgil and Morgan Earp and Doc Holliday were wounded. Ike Clanton and Claiborne had run for the hills. Sheriff John Behan of Cochise County, who witnessed the shootout, charged the Earps and Holliday with murder. A month later, however, a Tombstone judge found the men not guilty, ruling that they were “fully justified in committing these homicides.” The famous shootout has been immortalized in many movies, including Frontier Marshal (1939), Gunfight at the OK Corral (1957), Tombstone (1993) and Wyatt Earp (1994).

Now for some stock and investing news-

General Electric (NYSE:GE) shares surged this week to their best levels in four months before pulling back, as optimism grows ahead of the company's earnings report on Oct. 28. Wolfe Research's Nigel Coe likes what a vaccine could mean for GE's stock and for GE's aviation business, believing the shares are "too cheap" at current levels with Wall Street earnings expectations "well calibrated for this deep trough." Coe believes investor sentiment toward GE will move in tandem with global airline capacity, making GE the "most compelling post-COVID play" in the electrical equipment/multi-industry sector.

Credit card issuers are ramping up efforts to attract new cardholders after fears of surging delinquencies failed to materialize when the pandemic disrupted many retail businesses this spring. The last quarter of the year, traditionally the busiest quarter for retailers and for card issuers' customer-acquisition campaigns, will test credit quality metrics as U.S. and global COVID-19 cases resurge, exerting more pressure on consumers and the economy. New card holders! No thanks. We pay cash or use our debit card. Cleared credit card debt about 25 years ago and we vowed never to go down that road again. Dave Ramsey philosophy helped us to save cash. Fun to write a check for a vehicle and drive away!

Dunkin' Brands Group (NASDAQ:DNKN) confirms that it has held preliminary talks to be acquired by Inspire Brands after the New York Times reported on the negotiations earlier. Inspire would take Dunkin' private at $106.5 per share, valuing the company at $8.8B, the Times reported, adding that the deal could be announced as soon as Monday. If successful, Inspire will add the Dunkin' coffee-and-donut and Baskin Robbin ice cream chains to it Buffalo Wild Wings, Arby's Sonic, and Jimmy John's chains that it already owns. Dunkin' seems to do a good business in our town. I am not a donut person and I prefer my Folger's instant. I can get about a month of coffee from a $8 container of Folger's. Just black. No sugar, no cream.

Blackstone's (NYSE:BX) nontraded real-estate investment trust BREIT has agreed to buy Simply Self Storage from Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE:BAM) for about $1.2B, reports the WSJ. I am long $BX and long $BAM. That's why I included this.

New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ:NFE) has invested in H2Pro, an Israel-based company focused on development of efficient and low-cost green hydrogen production technology. As part of the investment, Zero, New Fortress' renewable hydrogen-focused division will partner with H2Pro to support demonstration projects and the commercialization of the technology.

Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) reports revenue increased 9% Y/Y in the U.S. and Canada segment during Q3 to $977M and 7% in the European region to $517M. The e-commerce channel saw revenue soar 50% during the quarter. Revenue from the eOne segment was down 32% to $193.5M. "Building off this quarter's growth in toys, games and digital we are positioned to deliver a good holiday season. Live-action entertainment production is returning, and we are set to improve deliveries in the fourth quarter with some moving into 2021," says CEO Brian Goldner.


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