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Chris L

Alibaba's Stock Price Does NOT Matter

What makes anyone think that Xi cares about Alibaba’s stock price? So many people here seem to think that the price dropping more is the worst outcome. That’s not even in the ballpark of the worst outcomes.

$BABA, Alibaba Group Holding Limited / H1

How about China taking all of the profits from Alibaba and investing them in “shared prosperity” or worse, the Chinese military? An effective nationalization. How about using BABAs trove of data reserves to further a police state? Has China ever paid any heed to the pain of Western investors? Does no one here think that China would rather torpedo BABAs value on the western markets only to relist it in HK or Shanghai? People continue to think that China’s phenomenal growth rate (which is likely to start slowing, in any event) and rising/growing middle class will be accurately reflected in the shares listed on Western exchanges. So far, I’m not really sure that’s the case.

China is a raging wildfire. People keep giving it oxygen, in the form of capital investment and patience far beyond what would be acceptable for another market/geography. Keep doing so, and who knows what it burns down with it. It’s a country facing a coming self-created demographic cliff, and has a leader hellbent on immortalizing his own legacy no matter what it costs. There is absolutely no way to price the risk into the stock price because the risk is simply unknowable, particularly to Western investors. How can you say something is “cheap” or “expensive” on anything but a historical basis when you can’t accurately quantify the risk premium?

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